:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels due to an M7.1 flare at 31/1351 UTC from Region 4324 (N24E11, Dai/beta). Associated with the flare were Type II (893 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, a 550 sfu 10 cm radio burst, and a partial halo CME off the NE limb first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 31/1400 UTC. Analysis of the CME indicated an arrival late on 02 Jan to early on 03 Jan. Slight growth was observed in the trailing spots of Region 4324. Moderate growth and consolidation occurred in Region 4325 (S08E04, Eki/beta-delta). Region 4325 was responsible for a few C-class flares including a C5.9 at 31/0132 UTC. New spots emerged in the NE quadrant and was numbered 4332 (N14E31, Bxo/beta). .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on 01-03 Jan. M-class activity is possible from Regions 4324 and 4325. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 3,898 pfu at 31/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels on 01-02 Jan due to CME activity. A return to high levels is likely by 03 Jan. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event on 01 Jan based on the proton prediction model of the M7.1 flare that occurred at 31/1351 UTC. Proton probability decreases to a slight chance on 02-03 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of a solar sector boundary crossing followed by a possible connection to a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged from 2-12 nT while the Bz component was between +11/-6 nT. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 400 km/s to between 430-540 km/s. Phi angle deflected into a negative sector after 31/1218 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed over 01-03 Jan due to a combination of CH HSS activity and CME activity. There is the potential for glancing influences late on 01 Jan from CMEs that left the Sun on 28-30 Dec. Also, the aforementioned CME associated with the M7.1 flare is expected cause an additional enhancement beginning late on 02 Jan to early on 03 Jan. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels on 01 Jan due to the combination of HSS activity and potential glancing blows from the 28-30 Dec CMEs. By late on 02 Jan to early on 03 Jan, the arrival of the 31 Dec CME is expected to cause unsettled to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming.