:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Sep 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at very low levels during the period with only B-class flares observed. There are currently four numbered regions on the visible disk with none exhibiting magnetic complexity. A CME that was most likely associated with dimming near Region 4528 (S11W44, Hsx/alpha) was observed off the W Limb. Modeling results indicated a possible glancing arrival on 17 Sep. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for isolated C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares through 17 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 1,827 pfu observed at 13/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels until approximately 14/0430 UTC when it began to rise, eventually reaching a peak of 4 pfu near 14/1500 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 15 Sep before returning to moderate levels on 16-17 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to see a slow decline to background levels through 17 Sep. However, a slight chance (20%) for a rise above the 10 pfu threshold is possible due to its elevated state. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced and are possibly a reflection of the filament that departed the Sun on 09 Sep combined with the anticipated SSBC. Total field strength slowly increased to a peak of 14 nT after 14/1800 UTC. The Bz component was variable and briefly deflected southward to a maximum of -8 nT near 14/1435 UTC. Solar wind speeds remained below 400 km/s. The phi angle was variable throughout the period. .Forecast... Negative polarity CH HSS effects are anticipated to continue through 17 Sep. CMEs from the 13 and 14 Sep are likely to have flanking influences on 16 and 17 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels during a period of southward Bz. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field likely to reach active to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 15 and 16 Sep, with a chance for G1 conditions on 17 Sep. All due to combined CH and CME influences.