Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 01 Aug 2026 06:00 to Sun 02 Aug 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 31 Jul 2026 12:51
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for parts of Poland into the Baltic States mainly for large hail (isolated very large), damaging gusts and heavy rain. There will also be a risk of a few strong/longer tracked tornado events.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 with similar hazards but lowered probabilities.

A level 1 was issued for E Spain mainly for large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain.

SYNOPSIS

No change to the general pattern with strong ridging bending NE from SW Europe and a persistent trough over NW Europe. In-between, a frontal zone covers most of W/CNTRL to NE Europe and attached to this boundary, a wavy frontal zone extends from Germany to the Balkans with weak vortices moving E/NE along that frontal zone.

A progressive trough crosses the level 1 E with organized convection connected to that feature.

DISCUSSION

... Level 1 (excluding the level 2 area) ...

DLS increases from the Alps towards NE Europe with MUCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Pulsating/slow moving and clustering convection poses an heavy rain risk (spotty hail and strong gusts) towards the Alps with otherwise organized multicells, which are accompanied by large hail, strong/severe gusts and heavy rain. This is a broad brushed level 1, as ongoing NWP issues (e.g. convective feedback problems) from the previous day continue for this forecast period.

... Level 2 ...

The main focus for most organized severe exists in the level 2 area. The combination of the approaching trough from the W with a structuring surface low create a very favorable CAPE/shear space with strongly curved hodographs and impressive shear (DLS up to 25 m/s with 3km shear in excess of 20 m/s).

The main uncertainty will be, how discrete convection can stay and how much convective debris from the W affects this area of interest.

Any discrete cell will become severe (partially growing into bowing segments) with all kind of hazards like (very) large hail, damaging gusts and heavy rain. In addition, we expect an augmented tornado risk due to impressive LL SR inflow into (potential) semi-discrete cells and a few strong/longer tracked events are not ruled out (if LL cap erodes). A growing cluster races E/NE betimes with gradually diminishing severe during the night.

... E Spain ...

Lowering thickness but stout capping dictates today's CI risk along the orography. EPS/ENS data remains optimistic in CI and hence we expect a few severe cells with large hail and severe gusts next to heavy rain (driven by a moist and very unstable (2000-3500 J/kg) upslope flow into growing updrafts).